Научные основы оценки и расчета технических рисков в техническом регулировании дорожного хозяйства - Шерали Назаралиевич Валиев

Moscow automobile and road state technical university (MADI), Russia, Moscow

E-mail: vashome@yandex.ru

Valiyev Sherali Nazaraliyevich

Moscow automobile and road state technical university (MADI), Russia, Moscow

E-mail: vshn2014@gmail.com

Shegoleva Natal'ya Vyacheslavovna

Saratov state technical university of Gagarin Yu.A., Russia, Saratov

E-mail: Shegoleva123@mail.ru

Shakhov Oleg Fedorovich

Autonomous Non-Commercial Organization of VPO «Russian academy of business», Russia, Moscow

E-mail: aksi-ks@mail.ru

Shashkov Igor Gennadiyevich

Military and air academy of a name of professor N. E. of Zhukovsky and Yu.A. Gagarin, Russia, Voronezh

E-mail: igoshashkov@yandex.ru

Scientific bases of an assessment and calculation of technical risks in technical regulation of road economy

Abstract. Process of an assessment and calculation of risks is presented in the form of sequence of formation of risks on each functional subsystem and systems in general. Allocation of risks within functional subsystems allows to define more precisely ways of risk management in practical activities. As the characteristic of degree of danger of a site of the highway the total risk as a complex indicator of quality of the highway which can arise on this site under cumulative simultaneous influence of all influencing factors and parameters of various nature is used. In relation to all stages of life cycle of road and bridge constructions the concept of parametrical risk (as analog of parametrical reliability) — an assessment of deviations about the demanded indicators on quality, productivity and profitability is applicable. This idea allows to harmonize at the available level old (on reliability) and new (according to risk) systems of technical regulation (rationing). For essential simplification of methods of calculation of risks the method of an assessment of the area of a tail of distribution at approximation by the normal law of the histogram of distribution constructed on experimental (natural, production) is offered to data.

Keywords: technical regulation; risk degree assessment; harm degree assessment; theory of risk; action for operation; life cycle; quality management; standards; probability-theoretic approach; road economy

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